Powering Ahead

176 Pages·2013·6.99 MB·English

Powering Ahead
The future of low-carbon cars and fuels
Duncan Kay, Nikolas Hill and Dan Newman
Ricardo-AEA
April 2013
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The UK Petroleum Industry Association (UKPIA) represents the interests of nine
member companies engaged in the UK oil refining and downstream industry on
a range of common issues relating to refining, distribution and marketing of oil
products, in non-competitive areas.
UKPIA’s role is to inform its members of proposed legislation and related
developments, and to help form and advocate the industry’s position.
UKPIA is also an authoritative source of information or reference on the UK
downstream industry.
The Royal Automobile Club Foundation for Motoring is a transport policy
and research organisation which explores the economic, mobility, safety and
environmental issues relating to roads and their users. The Foundation publishes
independent and authoritative research with which it promotes informed debate
and advocates policy in the interest of the responsible motorist.
RAC Foundation
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London
SW1Y 5HS
Tel no: 020 7747 3445
www.racfoundation.org
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April 2013 © Copyright Royal Automobile Club Foundation for Motoring Ltd
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Powering Ahead
The future of low-carbon cars and fuels
Duncan Kay, Nikolas Hill and Dan Newman
Ricardo-AEA
April 2013
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About the Authors
Duncan Kay is a senior technical consultant for Ricardo-AEA and has a
background of 16 years’ experience in the automotive sector, working as a
research and development engineer developing new technologies to improve
fuel economy and reduce emissions from passenger cars. Since leaving the
industry he has spent the last 5 years advising and consulting on a wide
range of transport issues, particularly analysis of the automotive industry and
transport greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Duncan has led studies for the
Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership, the European Environment Agency and the
European Commission amongst others. In 2012, he completed a study for the
Joint Research Council of the European Commission examining the role of
research and development in maintaining the competitiveness of the European
automotive industry.
Nik Hill is Ricardo-AEA’s Knowledge Leader for Transport Technology and
Fuels and has over 13 years of experience of consultancy project work on
transportation issues for a range of public and private sector clients. He has
particular expertise in transport emissions, low-carbon vehicle technologies
and fuels, and in developing models to simulate future emissions trajectories.
Nik’s expertise includes assessing the energy and environmental impacts of
transport, including model development, life cycle analysis and the economic
evaluation of future vehicle technologies and fuels. Nik has led a number of
influential projects for the UK government and European Commission in recent
years, one of which was a high-profile European Commission project to identify
and analyse potential options for a long-term policy framework to reduce
transport greenhouse gas emissions out to 2050.
Dan Newman is a consultant for Ricardo-AEA with over two years of
experience on sustainable transport projects for both governments and the
private sector. Dan has particular expertise in battery/hybrid electric vehicles
and natural gas fuelled vehicles. He has been involved in a range of work for
the European Commission and has recently been instrumental in investigating
the effect of environmental regulations and standards on vehicle prices over
the past 15 years. Dan has led tasks assessing the impact of information
communications technology (ICT) of the large-scale deployment of battery
electric vehicles for the European Commission, and has modelled how natural
gas can contribute to achieving cost-effective greenhouse gas emissions
reductions across the European transportation sector.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Prof. Stephen Glaister of the RAC
Foundation and Nick Vandervell of the UK Petroleum Industry Association for
commissioning this work and providing valuable input and advice. Particular
thanks are also due to Luca Lytton for his useful comments and efforts in
the design and preparation of this report and to other members of the RAC
Foundation (David Quarmby and Philip Gomm) and UKPIA (Nunzia Florio,
Hugh Tucker and Chris Hunt), as well as Ben Kennington for his excellent and
thorough proofreading of the final draft.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for the RAC Foundation and UKPIA by Duncan
Kay, Nikolas Hill and Dan Newman at Ricardo-AEA Ltd. Any errors or
omissions are the authors' responsibility. The report content reflects the
views of the authors and does not necessarily represent the views of the RAC
Foundation or UKPIA.
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Contents
Viewpoint viii
Executive summary xii
1 The Challenge 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Meeting UK greenhouse gas reduction targets 2
1.3 Road transport’s contribution globally 6
1.4 Europe and the UK’s role 8
2 The Policy Context 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 European transport and fuel policy 12
2.3 Existing UK policy framework 20
2.4 Future policy changes 35
2.5 Conclusions 41
3 Future Fuels 43
3.1 Introduction 43
3.2 Review of fuels 45
3.3 Comparison of fuels 58
4 Future Vehicles 63
4.1 Overview 64
4.2 Review of vehicle technologies 67
4.3 Further improving internal-combustion engine and transmission technology 75
4.4 Weight, drag and rolling resistance reduction 78
4.5 Powertrain electrification 83
4.6 Real-world emissions and driving style 91
4.7 Comparison of technologies 92
5 Predicted Market Shares of Future Technologies and Fuels 97
5.1 Predicted market shares of future technologies 101
5.2 Predicted future mix of fuels 112
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5.3 Assessment of the key sensitivities 117
5.4 Analysis of the wider factors affecting uptake 119
5.5 Evolution or revolution? 125
6 Conclusions and Future Potential 127
6 References 133
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List of Abbreviations
ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (‘Association des
Constructeurs Européens d’Automobiles’)
AFV alternative fuel vehicle
BEV battery electric vehicle
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India and China
B7 diesel with a FAME content of up to 7% by volume
B10 diesel with a FAME content of up to 10% by volume
B30 diesel with a FAME content of up to 30% by volume
Bio-CNG bio-compressed natural gas, biomethane
BSG belt-driven starter-generator
BSI British Standards Institute
CARS21 Competitive Automotive Regulatory System for the 21st century
CCC Committee on Climate Change
CCS carbon capture and storage
CEN European Committee for Standardisation (‘Comité Européen de Normalisation’)
CFRP carbon-fibre-reinforced plastics
CNG compressed natural gas
CO carbon dioxide
2
CO e carbon dioxide equivalent
2
CTL coal to liquid
DECC Department of Energy & Climate Change
Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
DfT Department for Transport
E5 petrol with up to 5% ethanol by volume
E10 petrol with up to 10% ethanol by volume
E85 petrol with up to 85% ethanol by volume
E100 pure bioethanol
EARPA European Automotive Research Partners Association
EGR exhaust gas recirculation
ERTRAC European Road Transport Research Advisory Council
ETP European Technology Platform
EUCAR European Council for Automotive R&D
EUROBAT Association of European Storage Battery Manufacturers
EV electric vehicle
FAME fatty acid methyl ester (first-generation biodiesel)
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FCC Future Car Challenge
FCV fuel cell vehicle
FT-BTL ‘Fischer–Tropsch biomass to liquid’ – refers to both the process and the
resultant diesel fuel
GHG greenhouse gas
GTL gas to liquid
HCCI homogenous charge compression ignition
HEV hybrid electric vehicle
HFCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
HGV heavy goods vehicle
HMRC HM Revenue & Customs
HVO hydrotreated vegetable oil
ICE internal-combustion engine
IEA International Energy Agency
IFS Institute for Fiscal Studies
ILUC indirect land-use change
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
JRC Joint Research Council (of the European Commission)
LCVIP Low Carbon Vehicles Innovation Platform
LCVPPP Low Carbon Vehicle Public Procurement Programme
LDV light-duty vehicle
LBM liquid biomethane
LiPF6 lithium hexafluorophosphate, used in battery chemistry
LFP lithium–iron phosphate, used in battery chemistry
LMO lithium–manganese oxide, used in battery chemistry
LMP lithium–metal polymer, used in battery chemistry
LNG liquefied natural gas
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
LTO lithium–titanate oxide, used in battery chemistry
MJ megajoules
MPV multipurpose vehicle
NCA lithium–nickel cobalt aluminium oxide, used in battery chemistry
NEDC New European Drive Cycle
NiCd nickel–cadmium, used in battery chemistry
NiMH nickel–metal hydride, used in battery chemistry
NMC lithium–nickel manganese cobalt oxide, used in battery chemistry
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OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEM original equipment manufacturer
OLEV Office for Low Emission Vehicles
PEM polymer electrolyte membrane
PEMS portable emissions measurement system
PFCC Polymer Fuel Cells Challenge
PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
PICG Plug-in Car Grant
PIP Plugged-in Places
R&D research and development
RED Renewable Energy Directive
REEV range-extended electric vehicle
RPI Retail Prices Index
RTFC Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates
RTFO Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
SMMT Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
SULTAN SUstainabLe TrANsport illustrative scenario tool
TMO transition metal oxide, used in battery chemistry
TPMS tyre pressure monitoring systems
TSB Technology Strategy Board
TTW tank-to-wheel
TWh terawatt-hours
ULCVDP Ultra Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrator Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
VCA Vehicle Certification Agency
VED Vehicle Excise Duty
WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WLTP Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure
WTT well-to-tank
WTW well-to-wheel