Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events

209 Pages·2009·1.14 MB·English

by  John A. Sokolowski

MODELING AND
SIMULATION
FOR ANALYZING
GLOBAL EVENTS
MODELING AND
SIMULATION
FOR ANALYZING
GLOBAL EVENTS
John A. Sokolowski
Catherine M. Banks
A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION
Coverart:WhitneyA.Sokolowski.
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Sokolowski,JohnA.,1953–
Modelingandsimulationforanalyzingglobalevents/JohnA.Sokolowski,CatherineM.
Banks.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-47841-7(cloth)
1. Eventhistoryanalysis. 2. Eventhistoryanalysis–Computersimulation.3. History–
Mathematicalmodels. 4. Socialsciences–Mathematicalmodels. I. Banks,CatherineM.,1960–
II. Title.
H61.S77572009
001.4—dc22
2008053470
PrintedinUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
This book is dedicated to
my grandmother, Theresa Hanz
who taught me what is important in life
—John A. Sokolowski
my family
—Catherine M. Banks
CONTENTS
Preface xi
I PRINCIPLES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION:
ADVANCING GLOBAL STUDIES 1
1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3
Introduction 3
An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4
A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8
Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16
Conclusions 20
Key Terms 21
References 21
Further Reading 22
2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23
Introduction 23
Global Events and the Social Sciences 25
Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28
Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32
Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36
Model Validation 39
Conclusions 40
Key Terms 41
References 41
II MODELING PARADIGMS 43
3 System Dynamics 45
Introduction 45
Dynamic System Behavior 46
vii
viii CONTENTS
Building Blocks of System Dynamics
Models 51
Conclusions 61
Key Terms 61
References 61
4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63
Introduction 63
Agent-Based Models: Description
and Definition 64
Social Networks 76
Building an Agent-Based Model 77
Conclusions 78
Key Terms 78
References 79
5 Game Theory 81
Introduction 81
Fundamentals of Game Theory 81
Types of Games 86
Conclusions 95
Key Terms 95
References 96
III MODELING GLOBAL EVENTS 97
6 Case Study: Colombia—A Country Study
of Insurgency 99
Introduction 99
Developing the Research Question
and Methodology 101
Background: Qualitative Research 102
Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108
System Dynamics 115
Responding to the Research Question 117
Key Terms 120
References 120
Case Study Bibliography 120
CONTENTS ix
7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement—
Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of
Soviet Communism 123
Introduction 123
Developing the Research Question
and Methodology 125
Background: Qualitative Research 126
Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli
and Actions 144
Modeling Human Behavior with Agents 147
Responding to the Research Question 150
Conclusions 151
Key Terms 152
References 152
Case Study Bibliography 153
8 Case Study: Vietnam—Johnson’s War, 1963–1965 155
Introduction 155
Developing the Research Question
and Methodology 157
Background: Qualitative Research 158
Analyzing the Social Network Structures 165
Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior
Modeling 169
Agent-Based Model Development 169
Responding to the Research Question 172
Key Terms 173
References 174
Case Study Bibliography 174
9 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis—A National
Security Emergency 177
Introduction 177
Developing the Research Question
and Methodology 179
Background: Qualitative Research 180
Evaluating Behaviors 188
Game Theory 192
x CONTENTS
Responding to the Research Question 197
Key Terms 199
References 199
Case Study Bibliography 200
Index 203
PREFACE
The impetus for this book was the development of an academic course
that integrates qualitative analysis of real-world events into quantitative,
numerical representations of those data to produce models that enhance
traditional socialsciencemodeling. Asweexploredtextbooks andsources
to support this course, we quickly learned that none existed. Hence, we
determined that a text in modeling and simulation with applications to
global events would serve not only our students’ needs, but the needs of
manyengineering, science,andsocialsciencemajorswhowanttoexplore
various methods of researching and representing the international events
that shape the world in which we live.
Modeling and simulation (M&S) as its own discipline has a number
of modeling domains in its toolbox. Students with backgrounds in M&S
are no doubt familiar with system dynamics, game theory, agent-based
modeling, and social network modeling. Students with liberal arts back-
grounds, such as in international studies, political science, history, and
sociology, are accustomed to traditional social science methods of mod-
eling, such as statistical modeling, formal modeling (game theory), and
agent-based modeling. It did not take long for us to recognize that cou-
pling these disciplines and their methods of investigation would facilitate
an interdisciplinary approach to discovery and communication using the
common ground between social scientists and engineers and scientists:
modeling and simulation.
It is important to note, however, that engineering students approach
modeling and simulation from a very different perspective than do stu-
dentsofinternationalstudies,politicalscience,andsociology.Engineering
majorsareabletodrawontheirmathematicalbackgroundandengineering
trainingformodeldevelopment,andfromtheircomputerscienceskillsfor
visualization(communication). Socialsciencestudentsengageinvigorous
qualitative assessment as they explore “what happened.” Understandably,
social science students model those data without the skill-set of the engi-
neer and the sophistication of an engineering model. The engineering
student, on the other hand, may not fully appreciate the complexity of
xi
xii PREFACE
human behavior and social network analysis as uncovered in the quali-
tative research conducted by a student trained in the liberal arts. Hence,
students with social science backgrounds would be well served to acquire
skills that enable them to better analyze events that shape our world. Stu-
dents with engineering and science backgrounds may already possess the
skills necessary to model, simulate, and visualize; however, they would
benefit by applying those skills to real-world events that affect our lives.
Many universities have realized that modeling and simulation has
become an important tool in understanding and even solving numerous
and diverse problems. These institutions have begun to offer introductory
and application courses in this field to acquaint their students with
the foundational concepts that will help them employ modeling and
simulation in their various disciplines. This book provides an orientation
to the theory and applications of modeling and simulation in the realm
of social science, with an emphasis on international studies, political
science, history, and sociology. It is designed to provide an understanding
of historical and contemporary global events and to represent those events
in a scientific format. Attention is focused on (1) understanding the event
with an eye to gathering empirical data to construct a model, an abstract
representation of the event; (2) understanding how to construct a model;
(3) understanding what model would best facilitate the representation of
the data; and (4) understanding how to analyze, verify, and validate the
model.
The text is appropriate for students of all disciplines, but will be of
special interest to students observing international affairs because it intro-
ducesglobaleventsthatallofusshouldunderstand. Theintentistwofold:
(1) to expose students to events in political history that have placed us in
the environment in which we now live, and (2) to encourage students to
explore other ways to understand and discuss that environment.
To students we offer a concise look at the key concepts in the field
of modeling and simulation. Although modeling and simulation neces-
sarily entails mathematical representations and computer programs, the
authors endeavored to highlight these concepts so that non-engineering
and non-science students could understand the modeling and simulation
concepts covered in the book.
Thebookisdividedintothreepartswithninechapters.InPartI,Princi-
plesofModelingandSimulation:AdvancingGlobalStudies, we introduce
modeling and simulation and its role in research and analysis. In Chapter
1, Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why, we provide a brief
history of modeling and simulation, list the many uses or applications
of modeling and simulation, and speak to the advantages and disadvan-
tages of using models in problem solving. Chapter 2 focuses on Research