Stock Trader's Almanac 2016

328 Pages·2016·24.17 MB·English

by  Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Copyright © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Editor in Chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch
Editor at Large Yale Hirsch
Director of Research Christopher Mistal
Production Editor Steven Kyritz
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ISBN: 978-1-119-11068-2 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-119-18933-6 (ebk)
ISBN: 978-1-119-18930-5 (ebk)
This Forty-Ninth Edition is respectfully dedicated to:
Sy L. Harding (1935-2015)
and
Michael L. Burke (1935-2014)
Since the last edition, we have lost these two legends of Wall Street. We were
privileged to know both gentlemen and continue to benefit immeasurably from
their work. Renowned fundamental and technical analysis, award winning
market timing, prolific market research, and distinguished investment
newsletters; Sy and Mike will be deeply missed.
Mike was Editor of Chartcraft publications and Investors Intelligence from 1982
to 1999 and co-editor with John Gray 2000–2014. He taught fundamental and
technical analysis at the New School, New York from 1978–1990 and was a
columnist and contributing editor of the Moneypaper from 1983–2012. He
authored The Three Box Reversal Method of Point and Figure: Construction and
Formations (Chartcraft) in 1999. Mike developed Point and Figure Relative
Strength analysis for stocks. He created the Broad Industry Group Bullish %'s
technique for finding depressed stock market sectors about to rally and the
industry group Insider Analysis as a leading indicator of what senior corporate
executives think about the next moves in their companies' share price. He
inaugurated a number of different model portfolios, including the Fidelity Switch
Fund concentrating on equities, Fidelity bond and international funds, and three
portfolios of individual stocks: Low-Priced, Long-Term, and Income &
Appreciation. To this day, we continue to incorporate Investors Intelligence
research and indicators into our market analysis.
Sy was a true man of all seasons. He was one of the foremost proponents of
market seasonality, cycles, and recurring historical patterns, so naturally we were
keen on each other's research, analysis, strategies, and systems. Sy enhanced our
Best Six Months Switching Strategy (pages 52, 54, 60 and 62) with MACD
triggers, dubbing it the “best mechanical system ever.” He founded Asset
Management Research Corp in 1988 and published the Street Smart Report,
providing research, analysis, and timing on the stock, gold, and bond markets.
With a background in engineering as founder and owner of two high-tech
manufacturing firms, it was natural that his research involved technical analysis
and charting as well as fundamentals. Sy was frequently ranked in the “Top Ten
Market Timers in the U.S.” He authored the 1999 book Riding the Bear: How to
Prosper in the Coming Bear Market (Adams Media), which accurately predicted
the 2000–2002 bear market, and How to Beat the Market the Easy Way!
(Wheatmark) in 2007, just prior to the 2007–2009 bear market, which introduced
market-timing strategies for down markets.
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-NINTH EDITION
NOTABLE EVENTS
2015 RECAP/2016 OUTLOOK
2016 STRATEGY CALENDAR
JANUARY ALMANAC
FEBRUARY ALMANAC
MARCH ALMANAC
APRIL ALMANAC
MAY ALMANAC
JUNE ALMANAC
JULY ALMANAC
AUGUST ALMANAC
SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
OCTOBER ALMANAC
NOVEMBER ALMANAC
DECEMBER ALMANAC
DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK
CONTENTS
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY
CALENDAR 2016
RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY
CALENDAR 2016
S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016
RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2016
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR
2016
RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY
CALENDAR 2016
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR
2016
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR
2016
DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 182-
YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE
1900
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE
1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES
INDUSTRIALS
A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR'S BEST
THREE-MONTH SPAN
NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ'S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, &
CLOSES SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930
NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971
RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES
SINCE 1950
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES
SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
SINCE 1950
STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1950
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE
1971
NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1971
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE
1979
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1979
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE
1979
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE
1979
10 BEST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 BEST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
10 WORST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
CHARTS SINCE 1901
S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1930
NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL
PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971
STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION
CONTENTS
PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2016
ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS
LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS
INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2016
BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2016
WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2016 (FIRST HALF)
WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2016 (SECOND HALF)
WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2016 (FIRST HALF)
WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2016 (SECOND HALF)
MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2016
PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2016
IF YOU DON'T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES,
SOMEONE ELSE WILL
PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS
INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNT (IRA): MOST
AWESOME MASS INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED
G. M. LOEB'S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL
G. M. LOEB'S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST
EULA